Sunday, November 25, 2007

IF ONLY IT WERE A THREE STOOGES MOVIE!!!








If only it were a Three Stooges movie! You could just change the channel. Unfortunately, the cost to every American of the lack of any coherent and coordinated policy to address the potent nexus between energy independence, global warming and nation security on the part of the Federal Government grows daily. Add to that now the financial crisis now facing America, a housing market described earlier this month by Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf as the “worst since Great Depression,” credit losses at major US Banks projected to be over $400 billion and growing daily, and a growing floodtide of foreclosures facing millions of American homeowners. What does it all mean for America? The UN Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change report 11/17/07 – IPCC Fourth Assessment (AR4) Report full report & panel web-cast makes it ever clearer that the problems associated with global warming and the need to address them grow greater with every day’s delay. Sooner or later, America will have to invest large sums of money to address global warming. The longer we wait, the more it will cost.

Another problem we now face is the plunging value of our dollar, as this inevitably will continue to push up the price of oil. The longer American remains dependent on imported oil, the faster we will have to print dollars to pay for it. At some point, it is quite possible - to the delight of Al Queda, Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez and Iranian President Mahmaud Ahmadinejan - that many countries will follow the lead of Kuwait which this summer stopped pegging its own currency to the dollar http://finance.sympatico.msn.ca/investing/jimjubak/article.aspx?cp-documentid=4948777. Were this to happen, oil prices would truly skyrocket, as America would have to pay for its oil by buying the local currency at the exchange rates set by other, often not very friendly, countries.

There is mega-Katrina policy failure at the federal level. The best policies and iniatives in America are bubbling upward from state and city government, environmentalists, corporate America and growing awareness on the part of the American public. Twenty-five states and the District of Columbia currently require power companies to produce at least some of their electricity from renewable sources.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/environment/2007-08-21-renewable-energy_N.htm General Electric is closing plants which manufacture the old style incandescent bulbs, and its manufacture and sale of CFLs is growing rapidly. http://www.tedmag.com/common/webnewslink.asp?currentpage=4635
Advancements in solar technology are leading to large scale, price competitive solar energy production.

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/business2/business2_archive/2007/06/01/100050990/index.htm

Given all that is happening outside the beltway, imagine the progress America could make with a wise, coherent and coordinated national policy to address the potent nexus between energy independence, global warming and nation security. Consider the alternative. It’s easy to laugh at the absurdity of a three Stooges movie. Laughter will be harder to come by in an America where energy must be rationed and available only for essential services. If we collectively fail to make wise choices for America now, we may well collectively suffer as, the lights go out in our homes, and there isn’t enough gas to get to work.

Saturday, November 10, 2007

OIL WILL HIT $100 A BARREL AND KEEP GOING UP!















A cartoon in a recent Wall Street Journal showed a gas station with a sign that said “Last $2.75 gas for the next 10 years. $2.75 gas is now gone the way of the 10 cent pay phone call...gone forever. I paid $3.49 per gallon to fill up here in Naples, Florida yesterday. The weakening dollar is strongly related to raising oil prices.

When will oil hit $100 a barrel? This month? Next week? Before the end of the year? Soon. But the more important point is that it won’t stop there – it largely depends on how week the dollar becomes. Pick your date.

Frederic Lasserre, head of commodities research at Société Générale in Paris He suggested $120 a barrel could represent the level at which the cost of oil could result in economic damage that would be on par with the Arab oil embargo in the 1970s. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20071108.ROIL08/TPStory/Business Currently, there is no telling how much higher the price will go: $120? $150? $200?

Earlier this month former U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin, led a Securing America's Future Energy (SAFE) “Oil ShockWave” exercise in Washington, D.C. The purpose of the exercise was to simulate a global oil supply crisis and explore economic and strategic options for limiting the damage. According to Rubin: "Oil ShockWave demonstrates the critical importance of preventative action in mitigating the risks of oil dependence. Once a major supply crisis occurs, the short-term options are extremely limited.”(My italics)
http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKN0155542720071101

The military, strategic and political costs to the United States of failing to have a national policy of preventive action reducing the waste of energy, addressing carbon emissions and bringing on line, as rapidly as possible EVERY source of clean, renewable domestic energy available to us grows daily. National Security, energy independence and global warming are closely linked issues, which must be urgently and simultaneously addressed. To paraphrase Winston Churchill in his calls for England to take seriously the rising threat of Hitler and Nazi Germany…Of course we shall do it in the end, we shall surely do it…but how much more dear the cost for every day’s delay. How much more dear the cost, we don’t know. But the longer we delay addressing these issues, the higher the cost for every American.